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Friday, April 26, 2019

Running Up The Hills

By Justin J. Kumar

It has been a fairly quiet couple of weeks for stocks in the US and globally, but we are seeing some more uptrends. The S&P 500 hit a fresh all-time high this week and is marching to the 3000-level. We are still seeing green across the board in our market model signals, and we are under a Global Buy with the end of the seasonally strong 6-month period for stocks approaching. Could this be another case of “sell in May and go away” as new highs are eclipsed? We are not believers that this will be the case for 2019, due to what we view as a very healthy washout of risk in 2018, culminating with a selling climax on Christmas Eve. That type of market action can serve to refresh a bullish market trend in a sustainable way. For our Long-Term Momentum, we have moved from Negative to Neutral, but we will have to wait for the month-end reading to see if it will move to positive. Our Universe Trend Indicator continues to improve as April ends. Since this measurement takes into consideration 4000 stocks and gives each an equal weighting, it may be a better indicator that the US and global indices, which are represented by fewer stocks and are weighted by their market capitalization. The indices can be dragged upward by a few of the larger companies, but our Indicator gives a broader perspective to how the markets look. Overall, it does appear that means that more stocks are participating in the uptrend, which is a good market sign.


The Tactical Indicators remain in Neutral states, which is what we often see early in a Global Buy period. The 10-week fell back to 62%, reversing its uptrend towards high risk. As the 10-week averages have trended upward with rising stock prices, we would expect these types of reversals, especially early in a developing Bull market cycle. The Overbought/Oversold Indicator has almost reached the Bull Trend Average, which is where we would expect the market to be in a Bull market cycle. The MSCI All Country World Index is quickly approaching the 525 mark. We would be concerned if we began to move north and out of this upward-sloping channel into the Overbought zone, but as of now, this progress looks very good, with more potential room to run.


This week, we review the markets, including which sectors are leading and which are lagging. We also update what our economic model is showing in the context of strong US GDP data and a normalization of the short-term inverted yield curve. Should you wish to discuss any of the update information further, or if you would like to discuss your situation in more depth, please feel free to call or email us. If you are not yet a member of the Investor Education Institute and would like a risk-free 90-day trial, then please click on the following link and let us know that you found us through our Blog: Complimentary 90 Day Trial


Important Disclosures

The Investor Education Institute (“IEI”) is not an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission or any state.  The IEI publishes financial publications of general and regular circulation that offer impersonal advice and disinterested commentary and analysis.

The IEI utilizes a Proactive Asset Allocation Model (“PAAM”) that is designed to provide insight into investing in today’s financial markets. PAAM utilizes quantitative-based buy, sell and reallocation indicators, selecting from US and global securities, in seeking to achieve attractive risk-adjusted returns over a long-term investment horizon. As with any investment strategy, IEI has in the past, and may in the future, modify this investment approach and parameters of PAAM in any manner which it believes is consistent with the strategy’s overall investment objective.  In that light, the following material modifications were made to PAAM: in February 2009 (creation of Universe Trend and Cash Comparison Indicators for trend analysis), June 2009 (creation of Long-Term Momentum Indicator for trend analysis), September 2009 (expanded Asset Class Ranking System and started computerized testing), December 2009 (creation of Global Indicator Set for buy and sell signals), April 2010 (inception of PAAM Computer Model), October 2010 (implementation of Tactical Indicators and Signals for short term risk management), January 2011 (modify Global Sell Signal with additional criteria including pattern determination), June 2011 (close Global Signals with stop loss criteria), September 2011 (inception of Long Only Model), May 2012 (modify Global Buy Signal wait period to enhance signal timing), October 2012 (first use of Stock Model), November 2012 (implement ETF replacement criteria), December 2012 (additional historical data for Cash Comparison Indicators), November 2015 (modify Global Buy Signal with additional criteria), June 2016 (modify Tactical Sell signal criteria), May 2018 (expanded Asset Class Ranking System, Tactical Asset Class Selling, Mini-Buy signal implementation); however, none of these changes modified the objectives or overall investment strategy of PAAM. Rather, as noted previously, IEI made these changes to seek to enhance the manner by which it runs PAAM, and thus each change, individually or in the aggregate, might have impacted the performance of PAAM (either positively or negatively, depending upon the efficacy of the changes(s)) after their implementation.  For more information regarding any of these material modifications, please contact IEI at 1-800-504-8505.

The performance returns and investment strategies presented use PAAM and do not represent the results of actual trading using real assets. PAAM performance returns reflect the assumptions, views and analytical methods developed by members of the IEI. Hypothetical or model performance returns have certain inherent limitations. Unlike actual performance results, model performance results do not represent actual trading and the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as market disruptions, lack of liquidity and the effect of interest rates. There can be no assurance that PAAM will perform similarly in the future.  No representation is being made that PAAM will or is likely to achieve returns similar to those shown. There frequently are sharp differences between the hypothetical or model performance results and the results subsequently achieved by PAAM when tracking performance results in real time. PAAM performance results are shown net of any assumed expenses or estimated fees (i.e., an estimated $10 brokerage fee per portfolio transaction), and reflect the reinvestment of dividends and other earnings. PAAM results shown reflect the hypothetical purchase and sale of securities using the average of the high and low price on the day the security was hypothetically transacted. Where a security was not available to represent exposure to a specific asset class, an index was used in its place. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Any index information presented is included for comparative purposes, to show general market trends during the periods indicated, and is not intended to imply that PAAM is similar to the index (or indices) shown either in composition or element of risk.  The MSCI All Country World Total Return Index is a broad index composed of stocks from the US, Developed International and Emerging International markets.  It is shown for comparative purposes because it represents the areas that PAAM considers for inclusion in the model, however, it should be noted that at any given time, the PAAM model will include securities from a narrow subset of these areas.

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